Postmatch editorial

Senegal found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Congo DR 2-3 Senegal. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Congo DR struck first through Cédric Bakambu 26', but Senegal recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Senegal led Shots on target 4-6. Senegal also shaded Total shots 7-11.

Before kickoff, our model made Congo DR the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Senegal at 43.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.0%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Pncl. The market was offering 4.13 against a fair line of 3.85. That translated to an edge of 7.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Congo DR

37.3%

Miss

Market result

Senegal

43.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

52.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Senegal

Congo DR

Senegal

4

6

Total shots

Senegal

Congo DR

Senegal

7

11

Corners

Senegal

Congo DR

Senegal

5

7

Model edge

1

Pncl

Market odd

4.13

Fair odd

3.85

Edge

7.3%

Stake

0.48u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.