Postmatch editorial

Madagascar found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Comoros 1-2 Madagascar. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Clément Couturier put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Comoros led Shots on target 5-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Comoros also shaded Corners 8-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Comoros the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Comoros at 42.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 3.70 against a fair line of 3.47. That translated to an edge of 6.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Comoros

39.3%

Miss

Market result

Comoros

42.3%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Comoros

Comoros

Madagascar

5

2

Corners

Comoros

Comoros

Madagascar

8

2

Possession

Comoros

Comoros

Madagascar

57%

43%

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

3.70

Fair odd

3.47

Edge

6.6%

Stake

0.52u

That ticket matched the final outcome.