Postmatch editorial

Neither side managed to pull the match clear

The final score was Colombia 2-2 Paraguay. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Luis Díaz put the first mark on the match 1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Paraguay led Total shots 10-21, even though the scoreboard went another way. Colombia also shaded Possession 61%-39%.

Before kickoff, our model made Colombia the likeliest result at 63.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Colombia at 69.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.1%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Colombia

63.9%

Miss

Market result

Colombia

69.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

65.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Paraguay

Colombia

Paraguay

10

21

Possession

Colombia

Colombia

Paraguay

61%

39%

Shots on target

Paraguay

Colombia

Paraguay

5

6

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.