Postmatch editorial

Colombia turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Colombia 3-0 Bolivia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Juan Fernando Quintero scored 83' for Colombia.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Colombia led Shots on target 8-3. Colombia also shaded Possession 64%-36%.

Before kickoff, our model made Colombia the likeliest result at 86.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Colombia at 90.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (72.0%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Colombia

86.0%

Hit

Market result

Colombia

90.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

72.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Colombia

Colombia

Bolivia

8

3

Possession

Colombia

Colombia

Bolivia

64%

36%

Corners

Colombia

Colombia

Bolivia

4

2

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.