Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Chile 0-0 Uruguay. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Chile nor Uruguay found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Chile led Total shots 16-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Chile also shaded Corners 8-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Uruguay the likeliest result at 38.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Uruguay at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.22 against a fair line of 2.13. That translated to an edge of 4.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Uruguay

38.1%

Miss

Market result

Uruguay

52.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Chile

Chile

Uruguay

16

6

Corners

Chile

Chile

Uruguay

8

3

Shots on target

Chile

Uruguay

3

3

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

2.22

Fair odd

2.13

Edge

4.2%

Stake

0.85u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.