Postmatch editorial

Nottingham Forest bent the night away from the script

The final score was Chelsea 1-3 Nottingham Forest. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Taiwo Awoniyi  put the first mark on the match 2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Chelsea led Total shots 21-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Chelsea also shaded Corners 10-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 47.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chelsea at 70.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.68 against a fair line of 1.64. That translated to an edge of 2.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Chelsea

47.0%

Miss

Market result

Chelsea

70.4%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

57.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Chelsea

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

21

6

Corners

Chelsea

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

10

1

Possession

Chelsea

Chelsea

Nottingham Forest

67%

33%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.68

Fair odd

1.64

Edge

2.4%

Stake

1.26u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.