Chelsea
Manchester City won after full-time.
0 - 3
FT
Manchester City
Postmatch editorial
Manchester City settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Chelsea 0-3 Manchester City. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Nico O'Reilly put the first mark on the match 51', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 3-8. Manchester City also shaded Corners 4-12.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 39.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 52.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.9%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 2.18 against a fair line of 2.10. That translated to an edge of 3.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
39.9%
Market result
Manchester City
52.5%
BTTS
Yes
55.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityChelsea
Manchester City
3
8
Corners
Manchester CityChelsea
Manchester City
4
12
Possession
Manchester CityChelsea
Manchester City
37%
63%
Model edge
2
Dafabet
Market odd
2.18
Fair odd
2.10
Edge
3.8%
Stake
0.85u
That ticket matched the final outcome.