Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Chelsea 1-2 Aston Villa. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Chelsea struck first through João Pedro 37', but Aston Villa recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Aston Villa led Shots on target 3-8. Chelsea also shaded Possession 63%-37%.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 52.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chelsea at 56.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
52.0%
Market result
Chelsea
56.3%
BTTS
Yes
60.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Aston VillaChelsea
Aston Villa
3
8
Possession
ChelseaChelsea
Aston Villa
63%
37%
Total shots
ChelseaChelsea
Aston Villa
14
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.