Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the market favourite

The final score was Chapecoense 1-0 São Paulo. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Bruno Pacheco put the first mark on the match 26', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: São Paulo led Possession 23%-77%, even though the scoreboard went another way. São Paulo also shaded Total shots 13-22.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made São Paulo the favourite at 50.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

São Paulo

50.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

São Paulo

Chapecoense

São Paulo

23%

77%

Total shots

São Paulo

Chapecoense

São Paulo

13

22

Corners

Chapecoense

Chapecoense

São Paulo

7

3