Postmatch editorial

The script held and Mali delivered it

The final score was Chad 0-2 Mali. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Kamory Doumbia put the first mark on the match 19', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Neither side led Possession 50%-50%.

Before kickoff, our model made Mali the likeliest result at 66.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mali at 77.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at 10bet. The market was offering 6.50 against a fair line of 5.92. That translated to an edge of 9.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Mali

66.0%

Hit

Market result

Mali

77.8%

Hit

BTTS

No

63.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Chad

Mali

50%

50%

Model edge

X

10bet

Market odd

6.50

Fair odd

5.92

Edge

9.8%

Stake

0.38u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.