Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Chad 1-1 Ghana. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Célestin Ecua 89', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Ghana led Corners 0-7, even though the scoreboard went another way. Ghana also shaded Possession 35%-65%.

Before kickoff, our model made Ghana the likeliest result at 62.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ghana at 87.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.14 against a fair line of 1.13. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ghana

62.5%

Miss

Market result

Ghana

87.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

61.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Ghana

Chad

Ghana

0

7

Possession

Ghana

Chad

Ghana

35%

65%

Total shots

Chad

Chad

Ghana

8

6

Model edge

2

Williamhill

Market odd

1.14

Fair odd

1.13

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.82u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.