Postmatch editorial

Central African Republic found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Chad 2-3 Central African Republic. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Karl Namnganda scored 90+3' for Central African Republic.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Central African Republic led Shots on target 4-7. Chad also shaded Possession 62%-38%.

Before kickoff, our model made Central African Republic the likeliest result at 45.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Chad at 43.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 3.40 against a fair line of 3.20. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Central African Republic

45.4%

Hit

Market result

Chad

43.7%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

53.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Central African Republic

Chad

Central African Republic

4

7

Possession

Chad

Chad

Central African Republic

62%

38%

Corners

Chad

Chad

Central African Republic

10

6

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

3.40

Fair odd

3.20

Edge

6.2%

Stake

0.56u

That ticket matched the final outcome.