Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Central African Republic 0-0 Mali. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
Neither Central African Republic nor Mali found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Mali led Shots on target 0-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Mali also shaded Total shots 1-16.
Before kickoff, our model made Mali the likeliest result at 53.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Mali at 75.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Mali
53.5%
Market result
Mali
75.2%
BTTS
No
58.3%
Match numbers
Shots on target
MaliCentral African Republic
Mali
0
6
Total shots
MaliCentral African Republic
Mali
1
16
Possession
Central African RepublicCentral African Republic
Mali
87%
13%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.