Central African Republic
Madagascar won after full-time.
1 - 4
FT
Madagascar
Postmatch editorial
Madagascar settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Central African Republic 1-4 Madagascar. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Central African Republic struck first through Hugo Gambor 9', but Madagascar recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Madagascar led Total shots 7-16. Madagascar also shaded Shots on target 4-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Central African Republic the likeliest result at 39.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Madagascar at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathon. The market was offering 3.34 against a fair line of 3.14. That translated to an edge of 6.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Central African Republic
39.5%
Market result
Madagascar
38.5%
BTTS
No
50.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
MadagascarCentral African Republic
Madagascar
7
16
Shots on target
MadagascarCentral African Republic
Madagascar
4
7
Corners
MadagascarCentral African Republic
Madagascar
3
4
Model edge
2
Marathon
Market odd
3.34
Fair odd
3.14
Edge
6.4%
Stake
0.61u
That ticket matched the final outcome.