Postmatch editorial

Ghana turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Central African Republic 0-5 Ghana. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Kamaldeen Sulemana scored 87' for Ghana.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Ghana led Shots on target 0-11. Ghana also shaded Total shots 2-25.

Before kickoff, our model made Ghana the likeliest result at 51.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ghana at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.8%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Bet365. The market was offering 8.00 against a fair line of 7.21. That translated to an edge of 11.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ghana

51.6%

Hit

Market result

Ghana

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.8%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Ghana

Central African Republic

Ghana

0

11

Total shots

Ghana

Central African Republic

Ghana

2

25

Corners

Ghana

Central African Republic

Ghana

2

9

Model edge

X

Bet365

Market odd

8.00

Fair odd

7.21

Edge

11.0%

Stake

0.32u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.