Central African Republic
Comoros won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Comoros
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Comoros delivered it
The final score was Central African Republic 0-2 Comoros. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Youssouf M'Changama put the first mark on the match 20', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Central African Republic led Total shots 11-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Central African Republic also shaded Corners 8-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Comoros the likeliest result at 36.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Comoros at 60.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 2.69 against a fair line of 2.56. That translated to an edge of 5.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Comoros
36.6%
Market result
Comoros
60.2%
BTTS
No
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Central African RepublicCentral African Republic
Comoros
11
5
Corners
Central African RepublicCentral African Republic
Comoros
8
5
Possession
Central African RepublicCentral African Republic
Comoros
52%
48%
Model edge
2
Marathonbet
Market odd
2.69
Fair odd
2.56
Edge
5.1%
Stake
0.98u
That ticket matched the final outcome.