Celta de Vigo
Celta de Vigo won after full-time.
1 - 0
FT
Sevilla
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Celta de Vigo delivered it
The final score was Celta de Vigo 1-0 Sevilla. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Ilaix Moriba put the first mark on the match 51', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Celta de Vigo led Shots on target 3-2. Celta de Vigo also shaded Total shots 12-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 38.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Celta de Vigo at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (62.4%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 4.70 against a fair line of 4.35. That translated to an edge of 8.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
38.5%
Market result
Celta de Vigo
52.4%
BTTS
Yes
62.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Sevilla
3
2
Total shots
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Sevilla
12
9
Corners
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Sevilla
4
3
Model edge
2
Mansionbet
Market odd
4.70
Fair odd
4.35
Edge
8.0%
Stake
0.45u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.