Celta de Vigo
Levante won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Levante
Postmatch editorial
Levante bent the night away from the script
The final score was Celta de Vigo 2-3 Levante. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Celta de Vigo struck first through Ferran Jutglà 4', but Levante recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Celta de Vigo led Possession 57%-43%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Levante also shaded Total shots 11-14.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 47.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Celta de Vigo at 52.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.5%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
47.6%
Market result
Celta de Vigo
52.6%
BTTS
Yes
55.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Levante
57%
43%
Total shots
LevanteCelta de Vigo
Levante
11
14
Shots on target
Celta de Vigo
Levante
6
6
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.