Celta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés won after full-time.
3 - 4
FT
Deportivo Alavés
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Celta de Vigo 3-4 Deportivo Alavés. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Celta de Vigo struck first through Ferran Jutglà 19', but Deportivo Alavés recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Celta de Vigo led Corners 4-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Deportivo Alavés also shaded Shots on target 5-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 49.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Celta de Vigo at 50.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
49.4%
Market result
Celta de Vigo
50.6%
BTTS
No
51.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
4
1
Shots on target
Deportivo AlavésCelta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
5
6
Possession
Celta de VigoCelta de Vigo
Deportivo Alavés
55%
45%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.