Postmatch editorial
Celta de Vigo settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Celta de Vigo 2-0 Athletic Club. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Williot Swedberg put the first mark on the match 48', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Athletic Club led Total shots 5-14, even though the scoreboard went another way. Athletic Club also shaded Corners 1-4.
Before kickoff, our model made Celta de Vigo the likeliest result at 37.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Athletic Club at 38.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.5%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 8.80 against a fair line of 7.89. That translated to an edge of 11.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Celta de Vigo
37.0%
Market result
Athletic Club
38.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.5%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Athletic ClubCelta de Vigo
Athletic Club
5
14
Corners
Athletic ClubCelta de Vigo
Athletic Club
1
4
Shots on target
Celta de Vigo
Athletic Club
2
2
Model edge
1
1xbet
Market odd
8.80
Fair odd
7.89
Edge
11.5%
Stake
0.53u
That ticket matched the final outcome.