Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Cayman Islands
The final score was Cayman Islands 1-0 Antigua and Barbuda. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Joshwa Campbell scored 90+1' for Cayman Islands.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cayman Islands led Shots on target 7-4. Antigua and Barbuda also shaded Corners 3-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Cayman Islands the likeliest result at 42.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Antigua and Barbuda at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (64.7%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 1.23 against a fair line of 1.22. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cayman Islands
42.0%
Market result
Antigua and Barbuda
84.7%
BTTS
Yes
64.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Cayman IslandsCayman Islands
Antigua and Barbuda
7
4
Corners
Antigua and BarbudaCayman Islands
Antigua and Barbuda
3
9
Total shots
Antigua and BarbudaCayman Islands
Antigua and Barbuda
10
18
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
1.23
Fair odd
1.22
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.05u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.