Postmatch editorial

Cape Verde Islands turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Cape Verde Islands 1-0 Mauritius. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Yannick Semedo scored 84' for Cape Verde Islands.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cape Verde Islands led Shots on target 3-0. Cape Verde Islands also shaded Total shots 11-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Cape Verde Islands the likeliest result at 68.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cape Verde Islands at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (63.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.22 against a fair line of 1.21. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cape Verde Islands

68.9%

Hit

Market result

Cape Verde Islands

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

63.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cape Verde Islands

Cape Verde Islands

Mauritius

3

0

Total shots

Cape Verde Islands

Cape Verde Islands

Mauritius

11

2

Corners

Cape Verde Islands

Cape Verde Islands

Mauritius

9

0

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

1.22

Fair odd

1.21

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.13u

That ticket matched the final outcome.