Cape Verde Islands
Cape Verde Islands won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Eswatini
Postmatch editorial
Cape Verde Islands turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Cape Verde Islands 3-0 Eswatini. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Stopira scored 90+1' for Cape Verde Islands.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cape Verde Islands led Shots on target 6-0. Cape Verde Islands also shaded Total shots 12-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Cape Verde Islands the likeliest result at 64.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cape Verde Islands at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (66.7%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.18 against a fair line of 1.17. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cape Verde Islands
64.3%
Market result
Cape Verde Islands
89.3%
BTTS
No
66.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands
Eswatini
6
0
Total shots
Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands
Eswatini
12
3
Corners
Cape Verde IslandsCape Verde Islands
Eswatini
7
1
Model edge
1
Unibet
Market odd
1.18
Fair odd
1.17
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.40u
That ticket matched the final outcome.