Postmatch editorial

Cape Verde Islands settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Cape Verde Islands 1-0 Cameroon. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Dailon Livramento put the first mark on the match 54', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cape Verde Islands led Shots on target 3-1. Cameroon also shaded Corners 2-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Cape Verde Islands the likeliest result at 38.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Draw at 36.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 3.20 against a fair line of 3.02. That translated to an edge of 6.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cape Verde Islands

38.2%

Hit

Market result

Draw

36.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Cape Verde Islands

Cape Verde Islands

Cameroon

3

1

Corners

Cameroon

Cape Verde Islands

Cameroon

2

7

Possession

Cameroon

Cape Verde Islands

Cameroon

39%

61%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

3.20

Fair odd

3.02

Edge

6.0%

Stake

0.59u

That ticket matched the final outcome.