Postmatch editorial

The script held and Morocco delivered it

The final score was Canada 1-2 Morocco. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Hakim Ziyech put the first mark on the match 4', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Morocco led Shots on target 0-2. Canada also shaded Corners 6-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Morocco the likeliest result at 39.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Morocco at 54.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.10 against a fair line of 2.02. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Morocco

39.5%

Hit

Market result

Morocco

54.1%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

53.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Morocco

Canada

Morocco

0

2

Corners

Canada

Canada

Morocco

6

2

Possession

Canada

Canada

Morocco

59%

41%

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

2.10

Fair odd

2.02

Edge

4.0%

Stake

0.90u

That ticket matched the final outcome.