Canada
Canada won after full-time.
4 - 0
FT
Jamaica
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Canada delivered it
The final score was Canada 4-0 Jamaica. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Adrian Mariappa scored 88' for Canada.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Canada led Shots on target 10-1. Canada also shaded Total shots 20-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Canada the likeliest result at 62.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Canada at 85.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.9%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathonbet. The market was offering 1.30 against a fair line of 1.28. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Canada
62.9%
Market result
Canada
85.5%
BTTS
No
58.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CanadaCanada
Jamaica
10
1
Total shots
CanadaCanada
Jamaica
20
2
Corners
CanadaCanada
Jamaica
9
0
Model edge
1
Marathonbet
Market odd
1.30
Fair odd
1.28
Edge
1.6%
Stake
2.08u
That ticket matched the final outcome.