Postmatch editorial

Cameroon made the numbers look right

The final score was Cameroon 3-1 Libya. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Vincent Aboubakar put the first mark on the match 27', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cameroon led Total shots 16-9. Cameroon also shaded Corners 9-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Cameroon the likeliest result at 67.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cameroon at 74.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.43 against a fair line of 1.40. That translated to an edge of 2.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cameroon

67.9%

Hit

Market result

Cameroon

74.1%

Hit

BTTS

No

55.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Cameroon

Cameroon

Libya

16

9

Corners

Cameroon

Cameroon

Libya

9

6

Possession

Libya

Cameroon

Libya

45%

55%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.43

Fair odd

1.40

Edge

2.1%

Stake

1.42u

That ticket matched the final outcome.