Postmatch editorial

Cameroon turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Cameroon 3-0 Eswatini. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Gift Gamedze put the first mark on the match 6', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cameroon led Total shots 12-4. Cameroon also shaded Corners 6-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Cameroon the likeliest result at 72.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cameroon at 85.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.23 against a fair line of 1.22. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cameroon

72.6%

Hit

Market result

Cameroon

85.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

65.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Cameroon

Cameroon

Eswatini

12

4

Corners

Cameroon

Cameroon

Eswatini

6

1

Possession

Cameroon

Cameroon

Eswatini

67%

33%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.23

Fair odd

1.22

Edge

0.8%

Stake

2.09u

That ticket matched the final outcome.