Cameroon
Congo DR won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Congo DR
Postmatch editorial
Congo DR flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Cameroon 0-1 Congo DR. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Chancel Mbemba scored 90+1' for Congo DR.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Congo DR led Corners 1-3. Cameroon also shaded Total shots 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Cameroon the likeliest result at 47.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cameroon at 46.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.4%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.42 against a fair line of 2.32. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cameroon
47.3%
Market result
Cameroon
46.4%
BTTS
No
59.4%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
Congo DRCameroon
Congo DR
1
3
Total shots
CameroonCameroon
Congo DR
6
5
Shots on target
Cameroon
Congo DR
2
2
Model edge
1
188bet
Market odd
2.42
Fair odd
2.32
Edge
4.3%
Stake
0.76u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.