Cagliari
Cagliari won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Venezia
Postmatch editorial
Cagliari made the numbers look right
The final score was Cagliari 3-0 Venezia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Yerry Mina put the first mark on the match 11', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cagliari led Shots on target 5-1. Cagliari also shaded Total shots 20-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 43.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cagliari at 36.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cagliari
43.6%
Market result
Cagliari
36.2%
BTTS
Yes
51.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CagliariCagliari
Venezia
5
1
Total shots
CagliariCagliari
Venezia
20
10
Possession
VeneziaCagliari
Venezia
43%
57%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.