Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Udinese

The final score was Cagliari 0-2 Udinese. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Idrissa Gueye scored 90+6' for Udinese.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cagliari led Total shots 22-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Cagliari also shaded Possession 63%-37%.

Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 36.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cagliari at 39.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.3%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cagliari

36.7%

Miss

Market result

Cagliari

39.2%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

55.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Cagliari

Cagliari

Udinese

22

9

Possession

Cagliari

Cagliari

Udinese

63%

37%

Corners

Cagliari

Cagliari

Udinese

8

4

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.