Postmatch editorial

Cagliari made the numbers look right

The final score was Cagliari 2-1 Torino. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Torino struck first through Rafa Obrador 37', but Cagliari recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Cagliari led Corners 5-1. Cagliari also shaded Shots on target 4-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 41.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cagliari at 44.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.0%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cagliari

41.1%

Hit

Market result

Cagliari

44.4%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Cagliari

Cagliari

Torino

5

1

Shots on target

Cagliari

Cagliari

Torino

4

3

Total shots

Cagliari

Cagliari

Torino

13

10

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.