Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Cagliari 2-2 Pisa. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The late equaliser came from Stefano Moreo 89', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Cagliari led Shots on target 5-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Pisa also shaded Corners 2-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 41.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cagliari at 49.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.20 against a fair line of 2.11. That translated to an edge of 4.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Cagliari
41.8%
Market result
Cagliari
49.9%
BTTS
No
51.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
CagliariCagliari
Pisa
5
3
Corners
PisaCagliari
Pisa
2
6
Possession
CagliariCagliari
Pisa
59%
41%
Model edge
1
Marathon
Market odd
2.20
Fair odd
2.11
Edge
4.3%
Stake
0.81u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.