Postmatch editorial

The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean

The final score was Cagliari 0-2 Lecce. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Ylber Ramadani scored 76' for Lecce.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Lecce led Shots on target 0-4. Cagliari also shaded Corners 8-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Cagliari the likeliest result at 55.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Cagliari at 42.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.5%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Cagliari

55.4%

Miss

Market result

Cagliari

42.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Lecce

Cagliari

Lecce

0

4

Corners

Cagliari

Cagliari

Lecce

8

2

Possession

Cagliari

Cagliari

Lecce

59%

41%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.