Postmatch editorial

Cagliari flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Cagliari 1-0 Juventus. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Luca Mazzitelli  put the first mark on the match 65', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Juventus led Shots on target 1-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Juventus also shaded Total shots 3-21.

Before kickoff, our model made Juventus the likeliest result at 56.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.59 against a fair line of 1.55. That translated to an edge of 2.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Juventus

56.8%

Miss

Market result

Juventus

65.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Juventus

Cagliari

Juventus

1

5

Total shots

Juventus

Cagliari

Juventus

3

21

Corners

Juventus

Cagliari

Juventus

1

18

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.59

Fair odd

1.55

Edge

2.6%

Stake

1.19u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.