Postmatch editorial

Cagliari bent the night away from the script

The final score was Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Paul Mendy  put the first mark on the match 1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Atalanta led Possession 27%-73%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Atalanta also shaded Shots on target 4-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Atalanta the likeliest result at 50.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Atalanta at 57.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.5%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Atalanta

50.3%

Miss

Market result

Atalanta

57.8%

Miss

BTTS

No

52.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Atalanta

Cagliari

Atalanta

27%

73%

Shots on target

Atalanta

Cagliari

Atalanta

4

6

Total shots

Atalanta

Cagliari

Atalanta

9

12

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.