Postmatch editorial

Kenya found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Burundi 0-1 Kenya. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Ryan Ogam put the first mark on the match 72', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Burundi led Shots on target 2-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Kenya also shaded Corners 1-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Kenya the likeliest result at 40.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Burundi at 43.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 3.40 against a fair line of 3.20. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Kenya

40.7%

Hit

Market result

Burundi

43.0%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

50.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Burundi

Burundi

Kenya

2

1

Corners

Kenya

Burundi

Kenya

1

3

Possession

Kenya

Burundi

Kenya

49%

51%

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

3.40

Fair odd

3.20

Edge

6.2%

Stake

0.56u

That ticket matched the final outcome.