Burundi
Côte d'Ivoire won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Côte d'Ivoire
Postmatch editorial
Côte d'Ivoire turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Burundi 0-1 Côte d'Ivoire. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Evann Guessand put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Côte d'Ivoire led Shots on target 0-1. Côte d'Ivoire also shaded Total shots 2-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Côte d'Ivoire the likeliest result at 60.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Côte d'Ivoire at 77.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.0%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.29 against a fair line of 1.27. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Côte d'Ivoire
60.5%
Market result
Côte d'Ivoire
77.8%
BTTS
No
59.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Côte d'IvoireBurundi
Côte d'Ivoire
0
1
Total shots
Côte d'IvoireBurundi
Côte d'Ivoire
2
9
Corners
Côte d'IvoireBurundi
Côte d'Ivoire
0
5
Model edge
2
Bet365
Market odd
1.29
Fair odd
1.27
Edge
1.6%
Stake
1.79u
That ticket matched the final outcome.