Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Burnley 1-1 Notts County after extra time. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Emile Acquah put the first mark on the match 1', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Burnley led Shots on target 4-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Burnley also shaded Possession 74%-26%.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made Burnley the favourite at 73.0% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

Burnley

73.0%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Burnley

Burnley

Notts County

4

2

Possession

Burnley

Burnley

Notts County

74%

26%

Total shots

Burnley

Burnley

Notts County

12

6