Burnley
Manchester City won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Manchester City
Postmatch editorial
Manchester City turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Burnley 0-1 Manchester City. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Erling Haaland put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Manchester City led Shots on target 1-9. Manchester City also shaded Total shots 9-28.
Before kickoff, our model made Manchester City the likeliest result at 65.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Manchester City at 87.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Manchester City
65.0%
Market result
Manchester City
87.0%
BTTS
No
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Manchester CityBurnley
Manchester City
1
9
Total shots
Manchester CityBurnley
Manchester City
9
28
Corners
Manchester CityBurnley
Manchester City
3
11
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.