Postmatch editorial

Burkina Faso turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Burkina Faso 3-1 Ethiopia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Pierre Landry Kabore scored 90+6' for Burkina Faso.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Burkina Faso led Shots on target 9-2. Burkina Faso also shaded Total shots 19-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Burkina Faso the likeliest result at 64.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Burkina Faso at 87.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Pncl. The market was offering 7.24 against a fair line of 6.56. That translated to an edge of 10.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Burkina Faso

64.1%

Hit

Market result

Burkina Faso

87.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

62.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso

Ethiopia

9

2

Total shots

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso

Ethiopia

19

4

Corners

Burkina Faso

Burkina Faso

Ethiopia

3

1

Model edge

X

Pncl

Market odd

7.24

Fair odd

6.56

Edge

10.4%

Stake

0.34u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.