Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Draw

The final score was Burkina Faso 0-0 Egypt. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Neither Burkina Faso nor Egypt found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Egypt led Shots on target 0-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Egypt also shaded Total shots 3-8.

Before kickoff, our model made Egypt the likeliest result at 50.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Egypt at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.5%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Cloudbet. The market was offering 2.31 against a fair line of 2.22. That translated to an edge of 4.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Egypt

50.1%

Miss

Market result

Egypt

41.7%

Miss

BTTS

No

54.5%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Egypt

Burkina Faso

Egypt

0

2

Total shots

Egypt

Burkina Faso

Egypt

3

8

Corners

Egypt

Burkina Faso

Egypt

2

3

Model edge

2

Cloudbet

Market odd

2.31

Fair odd

2.22

Edge

4.1%

Stake

0.78u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.