Postmatch editorial

The script held and Türkiye delivered it

The final score was Bulgaria 1-6 Türkiye. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when İrfan Can Kahveci scored 90+3' for Türkiye.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Türkiye led Shots on target 2-8. Türkiye also shaded Total shots 4-18.

Before kickoff, our model made Türkiye the likeliest result at 64.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Türkiye at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.6%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.36 against a fair line of 1.34. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Türkiye

64.2%

Hit

Market result

Türkiye

76.9%

Hit

BTTS

No

54.6%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Türkiye

Bulgaria

Türkiye

2

8

Total shots

Türkiye

Bulgaria

Türkiye

4

18

Possession

Türkiye

Bulgaria

Türkiye

22%

78%

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.36

Fair odd

1.34

Edge

1.5%

Stake

1.57u

That ticket matched the final outcome.