Postmatch editorial

Spain made the numbers look right

The final score was Bulgaria 0-3 Spain. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Mikel Oyarzabal put the first mark on the match 5', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Spain led Shots on target 0-12. Spain also shaded Total shots 3-24.

Before kickoff, our model made Spain the likeliest result at 69.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Spain at 94.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (65.0%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Spain

69.8%

Hit

Market result

Spain

94.3%

Hit

BTTS

No

65.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Spain

Bulgaria

Spain

0

12

Total shots

Spain

Bulgaria

Spain

3

24

Possession

Spain

Bulgaria

Spain

22%

78%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.