Postmatch editorial

Bulgaria bent the night away from the script

The final score was Bulgaria 2-1 Georgia. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Georgi Rusev put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Georgia led Total shots 3-17, even though the scoreboard went another way. Georgia also shaded Corners 0-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Georgia the likeliest result at 51.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Georgia at 56.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 5.40 against a fair line of 4.96. That translated to an edge of 8.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Georgia

51.7%

Miss

Market result

Georgia

56.2%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

58.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Georgia

Bulgaria

Georgia

3

17

Corners

Georgia

Bulgaria

Georgia

0

4

Possession

Georgia

Bulgaria

Georgia

23%

77%

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

5.40

Fair odd

4.96

Edge

8.9%

Stake

0.41u

That ticket matched the final outcome.