Postmatch editorial
Jamaica made the numbers look right
The final score was British Virgin Islands 0-1 Jamaica. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Warner Brown put the first mark on the match 17', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Jamaica led Total shots 2-15. Jamaica also shaded Shots on target 2-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Jamaica the likeliest result at 75.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 99.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (61.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.06 against a fair line of 1.06. That translated to an edge of 0.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Jamaica
75.0%
Market result
Jamaica
99.0%
BTTS
No
61.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
JamaicaBritish Virgin Islands
Jamaica
2
15
Shots on target
JamaicaBritish Virgin Islands
Jamaica
2
5
Corners
JamaicaBritish Virgin Islands
Jamaica
0
5
Model edge
2
Williamhill
Market odd
1.06
Fair odd
1.06
Edge
0.0%
Stake
5.00u
That ticket matched the final outcome.