Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion won after full-time.
2 - 1
FT
Liverpool
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Brighton & Hove Albion 2-1 Liverpool. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Danny Welbeck put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Liverpool led Corners 4-8, even though the scoreboard went another way. Brighton & Hove Albion also shaded Shots on target 7-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Liverpool the likeliest result at 43.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Liverpool at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (52.6%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Liverpool
43.7%
Market result
Liverpool
45.5%
BTTS
Yes
52.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
LiverpoolBrighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
4
8
Shots on target
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
7
5
Total shots
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion
Liverpool
16
12
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.