Brighton & Hove Albion
Brighton & Hove Albion won after full-time.
3 - 0
FT
Chelsea
Postmatch editorial
Brighton & Hove Albion found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Brighton & Hove Albion 3-0 Chelsea. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Danny Welbeck scored 90+1' for Brighton & Hove Albion.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Brighton & Hove Albion led Shots on target 9-0. Brighton & Hove Albion also shaded Total shots 15-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Chelsea the likeliest result at 39.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Brighton & Hove Albion at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (59.1%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Chelsea
39.4%
Market result
Brighton & Hove Albion
43.5%
BTTS
Yes
59.1%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
9
0
Total shots
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
15
6
Corners
Brighton & Hove AlbionBrighton & Hove Albion
Chelsea
6
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.