Postmatch editorial

Strasbourg made the numbers look right

The final score was Brest 1-2 Strasbourg. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Valentín Barco put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Brest led Total shots 21-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. Brest also shaded Shots on target 6-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Strasbourg the likeliest result at 42.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Strasbourg at 46.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (60.9%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pinnacle. The market was offering 2.66 against a fair line of 2.53. That translated to an edge of 5.1% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Strasbourg

42.5%

Hit

Market result

Strasbourg

46.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

60.9%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Brest

Brest

Strasbourg

21

10

Shots on target

Brest

Brest

Strasbourg

6

5

Corners

Brest

Brest

Strasbourg

5

4

Model edge

2

Pinnacle

Market odd

2.66

Fair odd

2.53

Edge

5.1%

Stake

0.70u

That ticket matched the final outcome.