Brest
Brest won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Olympique Marseille
Postmatch editorial
The scoreboard moved against the pre-match lean
The final score was Brest 2-0 Olympique Marseille. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Ludovic Ajorque put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Olympique Marseille led Possession 32%-68%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Olympique Marseille also shaded Total shots 12-17.
Before kickoff, our model made Olympique Marseille the likeliest result at 45.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Olympique Marseille at 52.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (64.0%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Olympique Marseille
45.7%
Market result
Olympique Marseille
52.4%
BTTS
Yes
64.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Possession
Olympique MarseilleBrest
Olympique Marseille
32%
68%
Total shots
Olympique MarseilleBrest
Olympique Marseille
12
17
Corners
BrestBrest
Olympique Marseille
3
2
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.